Portland's housing market lamblike as springtime nears

The median price for metro-area homes is up about 12 percent
Wednesday, February 21, 2007
(as published in the Oregonian)

As the all-important spring selling season approaches, Portland's housing market continues to show signs of slackening.
The median home price in the Portland metropolitan area was $275,000 in January, according to figures released Tuesday by the Regional Multiple Listing Service.
That's up nearly 12 percent compared with January 2006. But home prices have essentially been flat since late spring, and have even come down a hair since their peak in June, when the market was gyrating upward and the area's median price hit $280,000.
New listings were up 19 percent in January compared with the same period last year, and closed sales were down 9 percent. Consequently, the inventory of homes for sale in the region hit a 6.2 month supply in January -- its highest level in five years. The average market time for a home sale was 65 days, up from 44 days in January 2006.

The softening trend mirrors the story nationwide, though the region's market remains relatively stronger than almost all other areas of the country. By historical standards, it is still quite healthy and continues to benefit from a strong regional economy and low interest rates.
"It's the thing we expected, transitioning from a seller's to a buyer's market," said Jerry Johnson of Johnson Gardner, a Portland economic consulting firm. "If this is as bad as it gets, we can live with that."

While median home prices still show strong growth year over year, Johnson thinks those comparisons will get tougher as spring wears on. For the year, he thinks the Portland area will do well to see prices hold at current levels, a soft landing that will look positively muscular compared with some metropolitan areas around the country. Still, Johnson cautions, "There's no way we're replicating the first six months of 2006 in the first six months of 2007."

Don't tell that to area home builders and real estate agents, who are still sounding a boosterish note as they head into home sales prime time. Many of them blame the media for spreading doom-and-gloom stories that have scared away buyers, and say there's plenty of pent-up demand that will fuel sales this year. "In reality, the market is still incredible -- it's not like we're Las Vegas or Arizona, where we can continue to build into the desert," said Rob Young, a broker in Clackamas County.

Yet RMLS statistics and anecdotal accounts suggest that Clackamas County -- specifically Happy Valley -- is one of the weakest pockets in the metro area precisely because there is so much new building going on. The average time on the market in Clackamas County was 84 days, compared with the metro average of 65 days. "I'm signing off on the same number of deals in this office," Young said. "I don't see a difference."

Likewise, Brian Bellairs, an agent with The Meadows Group in Beaverton, says he senses a decent equilibrium in the market, with some recent signs that activity is heating up.
"We don't know how hot it's going to be, but we think there are more buyers in the marketplace," Bellairs said.

Arbor Custom Homes, one of the area's largest home builders, said its sold a record 95 homes in January, following its record of 67 home sales in December. That's quite a change since last summer and fall, when Arbor was seeing a 50 percent cancellation rate on home sales because buyers were scared off by stories about the imminent bursting of a real estate bubble, said Wally Remmers, the company's co-owner.

Johnson, the consultant, says he hopes area home builders will show some restraint in coming months and let the market catch up with supply. There are already signs that they have their ears to the ground. The number of building permits issued for privately-owned housing units in the Portland area was 663 in December, down more than 50 percent from December 2005 and substantially less than any month in the last two years, according to census figures.

$4.00 Vignette

I need a little sprucing up around here. I mean, Christmas is over and I finished the last of the holiday decoration purge on Superbowl weekend. But what do you put in all those bare spots once the holiday gear is gone?

Well, the primroses are only $1. at the grocery store, so I grabbed 3. I had a bag of moss from the Dollar Store.

So.....I threw a few silver pieces on a table, (or baskets or pottery - we have silver, thanks to mom and grandpa, who have bequeathed us with tons of old stuff) and drop the plants in, fill with moss and voila! $4 later, plus a bag of candy for the dish, we have spring in the house.

I even finished the fall clean-up on the garden last week. Just in time for the Spring clean-up, which I might be able to save until summer.

Procrastination can be rewarding.

Phones

I was so hot for the Treo 600 once it was released, I could hardly wait. What a gorgeous phone! Even Brian Allen was impressed with it! Of course AT&T strung me along and never delivered on my pre-order, so I bought it directly from Palm - which may have been a good thing because they treated me well during my hundreds of phone calls to India to complain about the phone. I should say phones. They sent me at least 4 replacements of the 600 and finally just gave up and upgraded me to the new 650. It took so long to resolve my Treo 600 issues the new model was out.

That little beauty lasted for three years. I loved it. Except when I hung up on people because a part of my face or ear or something would touch the off button on the screen. Or when it constantly froze between calls. Or when the data synch ceased to work in spite of the purchase of a new cord. My love faded. And faded. Yet I was stuck. All my data (clients, vendors, friends, family, lists, memos, my beloved PITI calculator, everything!) was in Palm format. The easiest switch would have been to the 700. But 700 owners were hating the thing.

Just in time, out comes the 680. The new improved 650 without all the extra junk that made the 700 unweildy. The perfect solution! I rushed out and bought one. Popped all my data into and was back in business in a half hour. Except it died within a week. And the replacement phone suffered from the same horrible reception. I couldn't place a call in my neighborhood.

While the Real Estate industry has embraced the Treo as the phone for Realtors, the new 680's have the worst reception (they got rid of the external antenna) and the 700 has too much stuff going on. (Do you really need to download documents to read on your telephone while you're out selling property? I don't) I hardly know a soul who actually likes using their Treo.

But the Real Estate big-wigs have reeeally fallen for the Treo. Now Realtors can use their Treo to open lockboxes! No more carrying the little black box.

But if you can't make a phone call, who cares if you can open a lockbox. If your earring hangs up on your clients, or your phone freezes every time you switch from call to call, how good a Realtor are you really being?

So I fell for the Blackjack. It seemed to do everything the Treo had done for me. And it gets reception in Portland Heights. And on SW Skyline. And places where I hadn't ever been able to make a call. The phone doesn't hang up on people! I can google. I can send funny pictures.

While it took me an entire day to transfer all my data from Palm to Outlook, I'm in love with Blackjack. And it has satellite radio and will keep me company with miniature tv shows! (BTW, the rest of my family uses the "Dash" from TMobile, and it has very similar capabilities)

Bye bye Treo. Blackjack had me at hello.

Organization 101

As much as I'd love to tell you all that I'm always organized in every way, you know I'm not.

I mean, I get my job done in an organized way, and I can put my hand on almost anything within five seconds, but my jewelry was pretty much of a disaster area. Some on a shelf, some in bowls on my vanity, and some on an ancient belt organizer along with belts and sashes and... you get the picture.

I don't know how I came up with this plan, but it's been floating around my head for about 6 months - and finally I bought the parts and Norris assembled it for me.

It's just a couple of those coated wire racks for kitchens that they sell at Storables - and we hung them on the wall of my closet. There are all sorts of hooks and things, and I especially love the long racks that hold an armfull of bangle bracelets... and then there's a little basket at the bottom for all of my watches and cuffs and.....

Well I could go crazy organizing stuff with all the containers and things at Storables.

The cost of this project? About $45. (half of that was for all the hooks. There's probably a cheaper way - but I like it all matchy)

Will you see me wearing jewelry more often? You tell me.

Let's Compare Utilities Costs!

Moving can be very exciting...but it can also be a bit of a pain as well. Besides packing and unpacking, there is a long list of details to be handled. Things like choosing a mover, connecting utilities, getting Internet and cable service, or subscribing to newspapers or magazines in a new area can be quite a chore. And if you forget to connect one of the utilities you could be stuck in your new home for several days without that much needed service. To ease the stress of moving and schedule new connections for all of the utilities in one convenient location, simply logon to www.whitefence.com. (click on the Title of this blog entry above!)

You can quickly compare prices for movers, phone, electricity, television, or high-speed Internet. Just select the service you wish to compare (e.g., phone, cable, electric, etc.) or enter your address on the home page, hit search, and within seconds a list of services and prices available in that area will appear. Next, click on the service of your choice to view details and pricing or comparison shop by choosing three providers. Once you determine the provider, select the service plan, complete the requested information, enter the connection date, and within minutes a confirmation will be sent to you.

If you want to change your current provider, simply hit the icon for phone, cable, or internet, select "switch provider", complete the requested information and a list of providers in the local area will appear. Choose the new provider and the service will be changed.

Additionally, on the site you can complete a change of address form, subscribe to local newspapers, and order magazine subscriptions. Moving to a new home should be enjoyable and exciting. Using this tool can help remove a bit of the stress of moving and will also help save valuable time

Let's talk about 2006 Real Estate Sale Prices

Interested in the figures on 2006 Sale Prices in the Portland area?

Average Sale Price / Median Sale Price / Area

$245,400 / $235,500 / North Portland (area 141)
$302,500 / $265,000 / Northeast Portland(area 142)
$266,700 / $234,500 / Southeast Portland (area 143)
$265,200 / $248,000 / Gresham, Troutdale (area 144)
$353,100 / $307,200 / Milwaukie, Clackamas (area 145)
$326,200 / $286,000 / Oregon City, Canby (area 146)
$528,100 / $443,800 / Lake Oswego, West Linn (area 147)
$452,300 / $378,100 / West Portland (area 148)
$397,600 / $359,000 / Northwest Washington County (area 149)
$277,800 / $251,000 / Beaverton, Aloha (area 150)
$356,400 / $322,000 / Tigard, Tualatin, Sherwood,Wilsonville
(area 151)
$282,300 / $260,000 / Hillsboro, Forest Grove (area 152)

How does your neighborhood stack up?

If you're looking for a bargain or to pick up a fixer, you might want to check out Southeast, North Portland or the Beav. I have happy clients in all of those neighborhoods - in fact, the last house I sold was in North Beaverton (off Walker Road just West of 217) and it's a darling bungalow on a large corner lot. Sale price? $227,750. He's got a chance to make some good $$ on that one!

Morton Tree Service - such fine people!

I met an expert to look at the root creeping under the foundation at my client's future house. His metaphors made me smile. "Imagine the tree as a man. The major growing took place from birth to twenty years old. This tree is like a 75 year old man. It's still going to grow, but not very much. Cutting that root would be like cutting off a man's leg."

Needless to say, D. is going to keep the tree and the root and just keep an eye on his foundation in the years to come. And he's going to love tha told tree even more, now that he has such a beautiful comparison!

Pomegranates

Do you know how to get the seeds out of a pomegranate? (besides slowly picking them out) For a great tecnique, click on link above to the article on Epicurious...

And then shake up a white cosmopolitan (made with white cranberry juice) and drop a spoonful of pomegranate seeds into the glass for an elegant cocktail!

Small Donation, Big Payoff

This looks like a perfect place to put a few dollars. Like maybe $10 here and $5 there, and watch it add up and make a difference.


Kiva.org allows you to help finance businesses for those who really need it. Zip over to kiva.org (or click on the title of this blog entry above) and see what you can do for someone.

Snow Day Part Deux

Another day at home. Toasty fire, good book, a big pot of chili. Let it snow.

Golden Globe Dresses

My favorite?



Probably JLo.








I also loved this one, though I'm in the minority, it appears.












This dress looked fantastic on stage as Emily Blunt accepted her award. Not as great now that I can see it's basically a short dress over a flowy skirt. Still, she looks awesome. And her boyfriend can really sing!











Favorite acceptance speeches?

Meryl Street
Hugh Laurie
Jennifer Hudson

If you haven't seen Dreamgirls, please do.
My movie list just got longer... next up? The Departed.